Will the dollar hit R$ 6? Analysts assess exchange rate, global and fiscal outlook

The recent appreciation of the US dollar in global markets has reignited the debate among investors and economists regarding the possibility of the dollar reaching the R$ 6 mark by 2026. According to InfoMoney, part of the market believes that such a level is not the base-case scenario for this year or the next, although the less favorable external environment and Brazilian fiscal concerns remain on the radar. The debate gained momentum with the dollar's rise in global markets, heading for its largest weekly gain in two months and nearing a 19-month high. The movement is driven by bets on a more aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, supported by hawkish comments from officials and US inflation data coming in above expectations. The currency's recent strength reflects a combination of solid economic indicators and higher interest rates in the United States, which attracts investment to American assets at the expense of emerging market currencies, as noted by Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. Despite the pressure on the exchange rate, Goldman Sachs assesses that part of the real's depreciation observed after the Brazilian election represented an overreaction relative to the country's economic fundamentals. The bank highlights that Brazil maintains factors supporting the currency, such as a high interest rate differential compared to developed economies, approximately $350 billion in international reserves, and the role of Congress as an institutional counterweight. Other institutions project a less extreme scenario for the exchange rate. UBS BB estimates that the dollar will end 2026 at R$ 5.30 and reach R$ 5.50 by the end of 2027. However, analysts caution that the risk of further increases cannot be ruled out if the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive monetary policy for a prolonged period or if there are further disappointments regarding Brazil's fiscal situation.